In the realm of Australian politics, a fascinating dynamic is unfolding, particularly when it comes to the rise of Pauline Hanson's One Nation party and its appeal to younger Australians. While Hanson herself may not have all the answers, her simple yet powerful message is resonating with a generation that feels let down by the major political parties. This article delves into the reasons behind this shift, exploring the economic realities and political strategies that are driving younger voters towards One Nation.
The Economic Reality Check
One of the key factors in this political shift is the economic landscape that younger Australians are facing. The article highlights a 'lost decade' of income growth, where real wages for the 25-34 age group actually declined while those over 35 saw an increase. This has resulted in a collective loss of over $60 billion in wages for this cohort, a stark reminder of the economic challenges they face. The impact of COVID-19 further exacerbated this situation, stalling careers and compounding the financial pressure.
The article also points out the mounting debt burden, with federal debt set to surpass $1.05 trillion and state debt in NSW and Victoria reaching nearly $440 billion. The GST, which is a significant source of revenue, is now only contributing 82 cents in the dollar to NSW's coffers, the lowest it has been since its inception. This financial reality is a heavy weight on the shoulders of younger Australians, who are also facing some of the highest housing costs, income tax rates, and capital gains tax in the world.
The Political Response
The response from the major political parties to this economic crisis has been underwhelming, in the opinion of younger Australians. Labor, for instance, is offering a mere $250 in assistance, without addressing the underlying issues of why the system can only provide so little. This approach treats younger voters as recipients rather than active participants in the economy. The Coalition, on the other hand, is seen as offering a return to the past, re-litigating culture wars rather than providing modern solutions.
The Rise of One Nation
In this context, Pauline Hanson's One Nation party emerges as a competitive force. The RedBridge polling projects One Nation winning 53 seats and becoming the formal opposition, while the Coalition is reduced to 12 seats. This shift is not because voters are moving to the right, but because younger voters are concluding that the major parties' economic offers are too thin. One Nation, despite having no answers on productivity, housing, AI, or tax reform, does not pretend otherwise, making it a more appealing protest vote.
The Generation's Demands
The demands of this generation are not radical, but rather a call for a society where work is rewarded, housing is attainable, and the ordinary milestones of adult life are within reach. They want housing supply addressed at scale, tax reform that does not burden working-age incomes, and an economy capable of generating sustained wage growth. The major parties, however, are offering managerialism without mobility for Labor and frustration without modernity for the Coalition.
The Way Forward
The article concludes by emphasizing the need for the major parties to speak honestly about debt, productivity, technological disruption, and the reforms required to restore upward mobility. A party willing to do this would not just win an election but also deserve to. The next election could be very different, and the reckoning is upon us. The author, Jane Buncle, a barrister and former member of the NSW Liberal Party, reflects on the importance of this shift and the potential implications for the future of Australian politics.
